Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions



The Milwaukee Brewers (29-28) and Philadelphia Phillies (36-20) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 4 of 6 games last season

The Brewers won 6-5 in extra innings on Wednesday, defeating the Boston Red Sox as a -143 home favorite with the Over (7.5) cashing. 3B Caleb Durbin drove in the winning run with a walk-off sacrifice fly in the 10th inning. The victory secured Milwaukee's first series sweep of the season.

The Phillies split a day-night doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday. They won the first game 5-4 as a -156 home favorite with the Over (8) hitting. However, they lost the second game 9-3 as a +113 home underdog with the Over (7.5) cashing. Philadelphia has won 11 of its last 13 games.

Brewers at Phillies projected starters

RHP Quinn Priester vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Priester (1-2, 4.23 ERA) is making his eighth start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 44 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 road defeat against the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
  • 2025 away stats: 0-1, 3.60 ERA (25 IP, 10 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 5 starts
  • Only start vs. Phillies: Win, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 6 BB, 7 K in 7-6 home victory July 29, 2023, as a member of the Pirates

Walker (2-3, 2.97 ERA) is making his eighth start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 39 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-5 road victory against the Colorado Rockies May 21
  • 2025 home stats: 1-2, 3.04 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 in 5 appearances (4 starts)
  • Career vs. Brewers: 0-2, 6.00 ERA (12 IP, 8 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 2 starts (Last start in 2023)

Brewers at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

PASS.

I like the Phillies (-150) to take down the Brewers on Friday, but I'll take the better odds on the run line.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+145).

The Brewers enter Friday’s matchup with momentum after sweeping the Red Sox at home, but a deeper look reveals concerns. Milwaukee has struggled on the road, going just 11-18, largely due to shaky pitching. Their staff owns a 4.68 ERA away from home—ranking 23rd in the majors. That vulnerability is unlikely to hold up against a Phillies team that has been dominant at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia is 19-9 at home this season, winning 6 of their last 8 games, fueled by a lineup hitting .267 in front of their own fans—the fifth-best home average in MLB. The Phillies’ have been one of the best teams in baseball and Walker has been a big part of that. He's allowed just 11 earned runs over his last 7 starts (1.6 per outing). With a +39 run differential and a well-rounded roster, Philadelphia should continue its home dominance and take care of business against Milwaukee.

BET UNDER 9 (-105).

Friday’s matchup leans heavily toward the Under based on recent trends. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Milwaukee has gone Under in 2 of its last 3 games, while the Under has hit in 5 of Priester’s last 7 starts and 2 of Walker’s last 3 outings.

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